The Now & Future Role of Oil and Gas in Climate Scenarios
Climate scenarios have become a critical part of business and policy planning for the energy future. They enable standard, quantifiable comparisons between alternative versions of the future, help reveal the levers and actions that produce those versions, and catalyze critical thinking about the future of global energy. These scenarios are used by investors, the public, and policymakers as the basis for decision making—often for decisions material to the industry.
Despite their considerable value, climate scenarios are increasingly misinterpreted and miscited to oversimplify the accessibility of and need for a fossil-fuel-free future. Our analysis of 20 different publicly available climate scenarios shows that they tell a different story—one that emphasizes the current and future role of oil and gas in a decarbonizing energy future.
We present our findings to (a) dispel the misconception that in order for the world to reach its climate goals, we must cease oil and gas use and (b) alert oil and gas leaders that these scenarios represent an opportunity to gain competitive advantage in the Real Decarbonization ® economy. The opportunity for oil and gas leaders is to join the conversation by articulating their plans for the future—thereby informing rather than reacting to conversations about climate and energy scenarios.
