What Newsom’s flip means for O&G
What does it mean when the governor for climate action suddenly cozies up to MAGA’s biggest influencers?
Don’t assume the answer is obvious.
I’d been watching for signs that mainstream Democratic leaders were repositioning themselves to the political and climate right of California Governor Gavin Newsom. To me, such shifts would signal that the Democrats’ center of gravity was moving away from the progressives and toward a new, more powerful, pragmatic center—illustrating the rise of practical environmentalism, which I’d been predicting since November’s election.
Then Newsom himself suddenly became the anti–Gavin Newsom, veering right on transgender issues and interviewing the likes of Steve Bannon on his new podcast. What does it mean for energy? It means The Moment is even bigger and more full of opportunity for you—the oil and gas leader—than I anticipated. Read on to make the moves to capitalize on this generational opening.
Both of these things are true:
- Democratic leaders are stepping back from progressive talking points to win over the middle.
- Gavin Newsom—who built his brand on progressive cred—is now doing the same, just louder and weirder.
The situation
The November election shook the Democratic establishment’s sense of righteousness—and security. In the wake of what now seems an inevitable historic victory because Democrats got seemingly everything wrong, climate was one of the first things tossed aside. In the upheaval, the party is cleaving into those doubling down on “the resistance”—see the AOC and Bernie “Fighting Oligarchy” tour—and those trying to create a broadly appealing, centrist alternative to those who now see through the Myth and MAGA.
Gavin Newsom has picked the second option. With his podcast, This Is Gavin Newsom, he’s trying to reintroduce himself—not as the outspoken, climate-warrior governor of California, but as … what? His first three conversations were with MAGA-centric personalities Charlie Kirk, Michael Savage, and Bannon. The show is polished and heavily produced. It’s more than a podcast. It’s a rebrand.
While prominent Democrats are wringing their hands trying to understand the rationale behind the podcast, you don’t have to. You just need to think about what it means for the climate-centric stakeholders central to your endeavors. (See “Climate Warrior or Climate Curious?” for a quick tour.) Newsom is very publicly trying out this new space while also holding on to his climate credentials. It’s kind of a mess.
Like Newsom, many civic and political leaders are in a bit of a bind. These avowedly climate-centric stakeholders of yours may be looking for an out, an out that they can take without rebranding completely.
In many of the states where you operate, governors, legislators, and leading companies, have made unreachable commitments on climate. (Some, like those in my home state of Colorado continue to make them.) They are way out over their skis at a time when the public is showing less and less patience for climate ambitions that decrease energy reliability and raise costs.
If Democratic officials or company executives want to chart a more pragmatic path—but feel boxed in by past climate commitments or the persistent pull of The Myth of an Easy Energy Transition—what do they need to break new ground?
- Permission to be pragmatic. Climate-centric leaders need allies who both value climate action and normalize tradeoffs. If they don’t keep climate ambition front and center, they will be considered “sellouts” by their constituents.
- Narrative tools. These leaders require trustworthy information that lays out why climate action will require time and tradeoffs. The information will be unique to each jurisdiction and convey the complexity of energy transition endeavors, with a focus on cost to consumers, technical feasibility, and the imperative of maintaining energy reliability.
- Cover and more cover. The broader the world of pragmatic stakeholders, the better. Climate-centric leaders must build coalitions of energy consumers, business organizations, and diverse political interests that will allow them to invoke the Three Ts—timeframe, tradeoffs, and truth—without being cast aside.
You can help them with all three.
Seize the day
Democratic leaders don’t need to be “educated” by you on the primacy of oil and natural gas in our energy future. Instead, they need you to help them find a way to explain to their supporters why climate action is still feasible, but more challenging than they anticipated. The Three T’s can make their case, if they have the resources to convey them.
Here are three examples of how you can work with your climate-centric partners to help them navigate a path forward.
Timeframe. Climate leaders need political permission to acknowledge that the energy transition will take longer than their slogans (and prior commitments!) suggest. You can help them frame this not as backtracking but as realism—grounded in the infrastructure, workforce, and technology constraints we all face. Offer data, case studies, and operational milestones that show how steady progress still adds up to climate success, even over decades.
Tradeoffs. Climate narratives leave no room for the messy middle, but that’s where elected leaders live. You can provide the examples they need—of how gas reliability prevents blackouts, or how LNG exports support allies while building space for renewables—to explain why every step forward requires compromise. If you help frame these tradeoffs in values-based language, they can translate them for their constituents.
Truth. Trust comes from saying the hard things clearly. Many climate leaders are already privately aware that some targets are slipping out of reach. What they don’t have is the language to acknowledge that reality without sounding as if they’ve given up on climate action. Share examples of progress that hold ambition and realism together. The goal isn’t to remove expectations—it’s to reset them, credibly.
Now what?
The political upheaval among Democrats and those who made climate the center of energy policy creates opportunities for you! At Adamantine, we help our clients position their company strategies to lead through uncertainty.
- Reach out to schedule your team’s briefing on credibly engaging climate-centric leaders on pragmatic solutions.
- Please forward this email to three colleagues charged with working with Democratic or climate-centric stakeholders.
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To what comes after The Upheaval,
Tisha
