Don’t blame the Big Beautiful Bill
What does it tell us when the climate left is blaming anticipated energy price spikes on a bill (the One Big Beautiful Bill) that hasn’t even been implemented yet? It tells us this: Get ready for an extinction burst of Myth-making. The bigger question: How can you inoculate your company when you’re next in line for the blame game?
Both of these things are true:
- Energy prices are likely to rise in the short term.
- Those price hikes were largely baked in before the Big Beautiful Bill even arrived.
The situation
The Myth of an Easy Energy Transition is throwing a timely tantrum. This headline from The Atlantic captures the spirit: “The Most Perverse Part of the ‘Big, Beautiful Bill’: The Republican megabill could be setting America up for the worst energy-affordability crisis since the 1970s.”
To be clear, I don’t love the obstacles this administration is putting in front of all-of-the-above energy development—so this is not an endorsement of its strategy. And yet the overreaction has its own consequences for future energy and climate politics, which our industry should collectively avoid. In a nutshell:
- Oversimplified climate policy had us on a path to big challenges—not just for energy prices but for energy reliability as well. (The Myth promised that the transition would be easy and cheap; it would have been neither.)
- Lately, more citizens and decision-makers (including many identified with the climate left) have begun to understand that decarbonization and infrastructure buildout are and will be difficult and expensive. (The Moment for practical energy conversations has finally arrived.)
- This understanding contributed to a political shift last fall, and all things climate and renewables became controversial.
- The BBB arrived.
- And now there is a sweeping new narrative claiming that but for the BBB energy prices would be … where, exactly? The Myth has not provided a suitable response.
The blazing headlines of blame aimed at the BBB are what scientists call an extinction burst.
An extinction burst is the whirlwind of a behavior an organism will demonstrate after the reinforcement for that behavior stops. For example: A lab rat that’s been receiving pellets by pressing on a lever will press furiously at the lever when the pellets suddenly stop coming. And then it will go bite and kick the lever and go berserk. If you’ve ever seen a toddler throw a fit when their screen time ends, you’ve witnessed an extinction burst.
Well, The Myth of an Easy Energy Transition is throwing its own tantrum.
Media outlets and policy wonks are spinning a tale: The Big Beautiful Bill will jack up prices. That’s not wrong. But here’s what they’re not saying: Energy prices were already climbing—thanks to poorly coordinated climate mandates, a lagging grid, and reliability issues.
We can expect this kind of misdirection repeatedly in the months ahead, as The Myth becomes more exposed and tattered.
But The Myth won’t go away on its own. When politics shift, as they always do, The Myth will have a new foothold. That is, unless we take full advantage of The Moment and provide the leadership that makes The Myth forever irrelevant.
Seize the day
Here’s what you can do now to put a stake in The Myth and embrace your leadership position in The Moment:
Don’t overreact to the overreaction. Energy prices fluctuate. Reliability and affordability concerns were already reaching a boiling point. The narrative is shifting because The Myth is dying—and no one wants to admit they were wrong.
Name it…carefully. There are a lot of audiences with whom we don’t have any credibility—so it’s not going to be particularly effective for us to run around yelling, “Extinction burst!” However, the problem-solvers want to get out of the mess The Myth left them, so it’s reasonable to lay out the particulars of the perfect storm that has gotten us to higher energy prices and obstacles to building more energy infrastructure.
Stake out the high road. When energy prices rise, the blame game will begin. The Trump administration will be a target—but so will you. Continue to articulate a durable strategy that includes clear commitment to growing energy resources, pragmatic decarbonization, energy reliability, and cost control. That’s how you inoculate your company.
The Myth and The Moment is here
Literally! You can preorder my new book.
At Adamantine, we help clients engage constructively with climate-centric stakeholders while maintaining their operational reality. That means acknowledging trade-offs, anchoring to truth, and staying out of the spin cycle. Reach out for your leadership team briefing.
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To what comes after the extinction burst,
Tisha
